The Influence of Land Cover and Socio-Economic Aspects on Umbulan Spring Discharge in Pasuruan Regency

This research aims to analyze the influence of land cover and socio-economic aspects on the discharge of Umbulan Spring in Pasuruan Regency, East Java, which has experienced significant discharge decline in recent decades. The research was conducted in Winongan District and surrounding areas, using primary data from surveys and field observations, as well as secondary data from government documents. The land cover change model uses Land Change Modeler (LCM) and hydrological analysis uses Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess water discharge changes. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model was used to identify the influence of socio-economic aspects on water discharge. The results show that land cover changes from vegetation to settlements, population density, and water use for household, agriculture, and industry contribute negatively to water discharge decline. An optimal spatial pattern plan is recommended to suppress water discharge decline by up to 88.32% in the recharge area by regulating land use conservatively. This research concludes that sustainable land cover management and policies limiting socio-economic activities need to be implemented to preserve the Umbulan Spring.