Quantifying the Mangrove Cooling Effects on Urban Heat: A Two-Decade Remote Sensing Analysis of Jakarta’s Coastal Zone

Urban coastal planning in North Jakarta’s Muara Angke–Kapuk requires clear evidence of how land-cover composition influences Land Surface Temperature (LST). This study maps two decades of land-cover change using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA), derives LST from Landsat, and applies multiple linear regression across 242 uniform grids (150×150 m) to quantify the LST responses to the built-up area, mangroves, water, ponds, open land, and non-mangrove vegetation. The built-up area expanded from 716.1 to 1,525.1 ha, mangroves increased by 76.7% (183.7ha-324.6 ha), and mean LST increased by 7.5 °C (20.2°C-27.7 °C). The regression achieved a high fit (R² = 0.951), with warming associations for the built-up area (B = 1.619 °C), open land (B = 1.139 °C), and cooling associations for mangroves (B = −0.960 °C), water bodies (B = −0.478 °C), ponds (B = −0.275 °C), and non-mangrove vegetation (B = −0.469 °C). These findings indicate that integrating mangrove conservation/restoration with broader green–blue planning can help moderate surface heat along Jakarta’s coastal fringe. The OBIA–Landsat workflow provides a transferable, cost-effective basis for routine monitoring and supports climate-resilient urban development by linking land-cover management to LST mitigation in data-limited tropical megacities.