Forecasting of Indonesian Annual Protein Demand for Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) Using Exponential Smoothing

The need for protein or the amount of protein needed by the fish sector in Indonesia has never been recorded and known. Although the demand for protein in aquatic feeds is very high, data related to protein requirements for fish feed in Indonesia need to be known for determining the urgency of providing protein substitutes in feed. So, it is necessary to predict feed and protein demand based on a series of fish production data. This study predicted the protein demand for Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Three exponential smoothing approaches, namely, single, double, and triple exponential smoothing, were applied to obtain the best model for production estimation. The protein demand was analyzed based on feed conversion ratio and standard protein content in the Nile feed by knowing the production. Production decreased dramatically in 2020. The best approach for predicting is triple exponential smoothing, which predicted a gradual increase of Nile production in 2021. The protein demand for the next five years (2025) is about 345,331.50 to 690,663.00 tons in the scenario of FCR 1.2 and 2.0. It is the first report on predicting protein demand for the production of Nile tilapia. Thus, the government needs to prepare the fulfillment of protein needs for the tilapia fish.