Forecasting of export demand of black tea in PT XYZ Central Java

Tea is one of the agricultural products that has great potential to become a source of foreign exchange. One type of tea developed in Indonesia is the black tea. The market demand for black tea products changes over time and becomes more competitive. A company must have a good production activity plan to exploit opportunities optimally. Effective production planning for both long and short term is influenced by the demand forecasting. The market conditions of black tea are fluid, so forecasting demand helps companies to make decisions in determining the amount of demand for black tea in a period. Demand forecasting results are important to be carried out due to its closely relationship to production planning. This study used quantitative methods to forecast. The most suitable model of the request data is the ARIMA model (p,d,q). Historical data of export demand on black tea in 2016 - 2017 were used. The best model was obtained (1,0,0) combination to produce the most significant model with the smallest Mean Square Error (MSE). The results of forecasting increased from the previous two years with the amount of black tea export demand in 2018 amounted to 3872 tons from 3582 tons in 2017.