Forecasting Methane Emission Reduction through 3R Waste Treatment Facility: The Case of Janti-Sidoarjo

Municipal solid waste (MSW) contributes to methane emissions from anaerobic decomposition. Reducing MSW through 3R waste management at the municipal level can significantly lower methane, which has a short atmospheric lifetime of 12 years. This study evaluates methane reduction through a 3R facility using Minitab 22 for trend analysis, moving average, and exponential smoothing models. Results show high accuracy (<10% error) across all scenarios, with the best-fit model predicting significant waste reduction. Scenario 3 reduces landfill waste by 188.03 tons/year in 2024 and 203.53 tons/year in 2033, cutting methane emissions by 0.829126 tons-CO2-eq/year in 2024 and 0.897479 tons-CO2-eq/year in 2033—8-10% of Jabon landfill emissions. Optimizing 3R facilities, especially in Sidoarjo, effectively reduces methane emissions.