Discharge prediction of Amprong river using the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model

An accurate determination of water availability of Amprong River has an important role in the planting system to support the agricultural production process in the Kedungkandang Irrigation Area, because if the availability of water is not precisely determined, there will be an error in regulating irrigation water. To overcome these problems, a good analysis system is needed. One of the time-series models is the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model. The model was built by discharge data from 9 periods from 2008/2009 to 2016/2017, and its purpose was to predict the discharge of the 2017/2018 period. There were only five models feasible for use. The best model is the ARIMA model (2, 0, 1) (1, 2, 1)³⁶ with values of MSE = 22.90; KR = 6.00; MSD = 8.05; MAD = 2.04; MAPE = 18.53; and MPE = -8.98.