Development of Flood Risk Management Modeling Due to the Regional Spatial

This study examines flood risk conditions in the Juwana River watershed, Central Java, through the development of a quantitative framework that incorporates destructive power (H), vulnerability (V), and institutional capacity (C). Conceptually, the relationship among these components is represented by the fundamental risk formulation R = H x V/C. A GIS-based Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment (MCRA) approach was applied to integrate the hazard (H), capacity (C), and vulnerability (V) indicators within a spatial analytical environment. This conceptual model was subsequently calibrated through a non-linear regression procedure, resulting in the empirical formulation R =0.695·H⁰·⁰³²·C⁰·²³³·V⁰·⁷¹¹. The analytical results demonstrate that flood risk is influenced by the combined effects of hydrodynamic characteristics and socio-institutional conditions. Areas undergoing rapid land-use transformation tend to exhibit higher levels of vulnerability due to increased exposure of populations and assets, whereas stronger institutional capacity is associated with reduced risk through enhanced mitigation, preparedness, and emergency response mechanisms. The analytical framework provides insights that may support informed decision-making in prioritizing interventions, allocating resources, and strengthening regional flood management practices.