Development Dynamics and Mangrove Conservation in Gresik Regency: An Overlay Analysis of Spatial Planning Zones to Identify Areas at Risk of Land-Use Conversion

The northern coast of East Java faces dual pressures: The need for development in coastal areas and the need for mangrove conservation to support the environmental quality index. However, the Regional Spatial Planning (RTRW) contains zoning guidelines that establish the probable sustainability of the current mangroves. Through the spatial overlay of zoning maps and the current mangrove cover in the districts of Gresik, this study investigates the dynamics of development and spatial planning. In order to identify clusters of places at risk of land-use conversion, it was carried out using the Getis-Ord Gi∗ method for hotspot detection of spatial significant mangrove. This was followed by Overlay analysis to identify potential area at risk because of zoning regulation. This study shows a significant overlap between mangrove areas and development areas, particularly fisheries and industrial zones. It is anticipated that the findings of this study will offer suggestions for sustainable Regional Planning policies (RTRW) for East Java's northern coastline region.