ASSESSMENT OF THE RESOURCES SUSTAINABILITY USING RESOURCE UTILISATION AND CATCH PROJECTION APPROACH: CASE OF PRIGI GULF INDONESIA

Utilisation of fisheries resources requires good management to maintain the sustainability of fish resources. Based on these conditions, this study aims to analyse the status of fish resource utilisation and estimate fish catches in the following year. The data collection is secondary data from Prigi Fishery Port, East Java, from June to September 2023. This study evaluates biological surplus production relationships. Next, due to the time series data, the forecasting performance uses Holt-Winter’s exponential smoothing. The modelling shows that the best estimation value in the Fox model is based on the highest R² (0, 614) and the effort coefficient (0.000034). The maximum sustainable yield (C_MSY) and the optimum catch effort (E_MSY) values were 10.006 tonnes/year and 29, 425 trips/year, respectively. It shows that biological overfishing has yet to occur. The average production forecasting results in 2021–2023 decreased 8.5% from the previous year. Forecasting fish catches in 2021 exceeds C_MSY, but in 2022 and 2023, production is still below C_MSY. The circumstance indicates that fishing operations are inefficient because the catch obtained is projected to be smaller with fixed effort. Possible management strategies, therefore, include creating sustainable fisheries management through improved work variation for fishers in the off-season.